ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. – A new nationwide analysis from The Action Network ranks New Mexico among the states most likely to catch a cold this winter. According to the Cold Season Risk Index, New Mexico comes in at #3, behind only Washington, D.C., and Florida.
The index uses betting-style odds to measure exposure based on five factors:
- Social activity levels
- Cold and flu search trends
- Vaccination rates
- Population density
- Median age
New Mexico’s odds are +131, with an implied probability of 43.3%. Analysts say the state’s high activity levels and elevated cold/flu search volume are key drivers of its ranking.
Top 10 States Most Likely to Catch a Cold
- District of Columbia – Odds: -122
- Florida – +126
- New Mexico – +131
- New Jersey – +141
- Mississippi – +144
- South Carolina – +148
- Tennessee – +149
- Louisiana – +151
- Texas – +152
- Alabama – +161
The report notes that dense, active states with lower flu-shot rates face the toughest winter. While the index isn’t a medical prediction, it highlights relative exposure risk across the U.S.
Full findings are available here:
https://www.actionnetwork.com/entertainment/cold-season-risk-index-2025-which-states-are-most-likely-to-catch-a-cold-this-winter
