ALBUQUERQUE, NEW MEXICO – As solar activity intensifies, the northern lights are appearing farther south, and a new Aurora Odds Index shows where you’re most likely to witness them in the U.S.—and New Mexico ranks third.
The index blends four key factors—latitude, clear nights, sky darkness, and humidity—to calculate an Aurora Viewing Chance for each state. It’s a long-term probability measure, not a nightly forecast.
New Mexico’s Impressive Score
- Aurora Viewing Chance: 56.91% — the third-highest in the nation
- Aurora Reach Score: 37.58, reflecting favorable magnetic latitude
- Clear Nights: Approximately 167 per year
- Average Humidity: About 45.9%
- Darkness Score: 82 out of 100, bolstered by extensive dark-sky areas
These metrics combine to give New Mexico strong aurora visibility, even though it’s farther south than Alaska.
- High Elevation & Dry Air: New Mexico’s elevation and low moisture levels allow auroral light to travel with minimal distortion
- Dark-Sky Hotspots: The state features several International Dark Sky Parks and sanctuaries—like Capulin Volcano, Chaco Culture, Clayton Lake, and Cosmic Campground—that shield skies from light pollution.
- Consistent Clear Weather: With around 167 clear nights annually, stargazers have frequent opportunities for ideal viewing
Although Alaska is physically under the auroral oval, frequent cloud cover and higher humidity reduce its odds, placing it fourth on the index—just behind New Mexico .
- Santa Fe (MLAT 43.3°): Under strong solar storms (Kp-around 7), auroras could be visible on the horizon
- Albuquerque (MLAT 42.6°): Similar conditions apply, especially during solar maximum periods
These conditions, combined with winter darkness and equinox boosts, create prime aurora — and stargazing — conditions.
